پیش‌بینی تغییرات قیمت مسکن بافت فرسوده شهری پس از اجرای پروژه‌های نوسازی با استفاده از روش خاکستری (مطالعه موردی: پروژه مجد، منطقه دو شهرداری مشهد مقدس)

Mutual connection between the structure of cities and economic factors often leads to economic feedbacks which caused by structural intervention. This intervention usually affects people, private and public sectors’ decisions in urban land use through reducing or increasing economic costs or benefits of urban activities. The purpose of this study is prediction the changes in housing prices after implementation of distressed areas’ rehabilitation projects in (Majd project) (one of the rehabilitation projects of distressed areas in Mashhad) by using Grey Theory to predict the future price of real estates. The results showed that the prediction of economic and structural developments in studied area may result in the changes of real estate nominal prices, which can be explained by the Adaptive Expectations Theory in economics. Even though the structural effects are the first and more visible impacts of distressed areas rehabilitation projects, the subsequent economic effects would appear with some delays (4 years for this study). The real estate prices in two study areas - out of four – have been affected more than others. In 2013, the implementation of Majd project caused 27 to 54 percent increase in real prices of housing in that area. The results of the Grey Theory represented that current increasing trend in real estate prices will continue in future in a way that until to the project completion time, the nominal prices of real estate in that area would increase by 30 percent in comparison to 2013. Eventually, some recommendations such as reforming local prices offered to exploit the economic benefits of increased prices of real estate.